Richard Harris, Ph.D.
MRPI Faculty Associate

Issue

Consolidation of city and county service delivery systems and governmental units is a controversial issue of interest to different groups in San Antonio and Bexar County. Public perceptions can play an important part in City, County and legislative deliberations on this topic. In a recent survey respondents were asked, "Overall, would you say you are in favor of or opposed to consolidation of city and county governments into one unit?" This question is similar to ones asked in earlier surveys, and provides a basis for fairly detailed assessment of public sentiment throughout the political districts in San Antonio.

Data and Methods

A probability survey of 5,000 San Antonio residents was conducted by Metropolitan Research and Policy Institute (MRPI) Faculty Associates (from UTSA) in cooperation with the San Antonio Express News during the Spring of 1998. The sample size allowed for precise estimates of citywide public opinion (±2%) as well as public opinion at the level of individual council districts (±5%). Data from the survey are particularly valuable because they allow meaningful comparisons to be made between San Antonio city council districts. Respondent were asked to supply demographic information, to report on their perceptions of problems and opportunities in individual neighborhoods, and to express their opinions about the adequacy of city management and political representation in San Antonio. To our knowledge, this is the first opinion survey allowing statistically reliable comparisons among all ten city council districts.

Discussion

As illustrated below, while a plurality (46.4%) of the San Antonio adult population is in favor of consolidation, there is considerable variation by Council District.

Table 1: Views about Consolidation by Council District,
San Antonio Survey, 1998

(Prob. = .003, Cramer's V = .063)

Table 2: Views about Consolidation among those identifying their
Own Council Member or District by Council District, San Antonio Survey, 1998

(Prob. = .006, Cramer's V = .101)

The data in Table 1 are based on all respondents providing information on the consolidation issue from a random sample of all adults with telephones in San Antonio, regardless of their level of political involvement or awareness. The survey also asked whether or not respondents could personally identify their council member or council district. On the assumption that those who can identify their political base of representation are more politically involved, it is also of interest to examine the views of these respondents separately.

As shown in Table 2, the percentages change considerably when narrowing the focus to those most likely to be politically involved. Now district two has the lowest level of respondents favoring consolidation at 41.2%, closely followed by those in district 3. Districts 6 through 10 all show substantially more support, peaking in districts 9 and 8, at 58.9% and 58.1% respectively. Based on this information and with the general level of knowledge on the topic, it is likely that a plurality would support a referendum to allow a vote on whether or not to actually consolidate city and county governmental units.

Race and ethnic issues are important in considering the consolidation issue, but as shown below in Table 3, there is not a great difference in general public views on this issue among Hispanics, whites and blacks. Whites are slightly more likely to favor consolidation, but a plurality of each group is in favor. Again, the proportions saying "don't know" are noteworthy. Though not presented here, when narrowed down to respondents who identified their own council member or district the only substantial change was in the percentage of whites favoring consolidation, increasing from the 49.2% shown below to56.8%.

Table 3: Views about Consolidation by Race and Ethnicity, San Antonio Survey, 1998

(Prob. = .067, Cramer's V = .032)

Thinking about the range of factors that might influence public views on the consolidation issue, a model was developed to identify the most important predictors. Age, education and knowledge of council district emerged as significant predictors, with no real surprise in the findings -- more highly educated, older respondents who were able to identify their council district member or representative were more likely to be in favor. With other variables controlled, there were no statistically significant differences between council districts or by race and ethnicity. One quite surprising finding did emerge, however. About seven percent of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, comprising 352 respondents. Those interviewed in Spanish were substantially more likely to be in favor at 63.9% compared to all of those interviewed in English at 44.5%, and far less likely to be opposed at 8.8% compared to 38.1% of the English speakers. Those interviewed in Spanish were also more likely to indicate that they did not know (27.3% compared to 17.4%). When narrowed down only to Hispanic respondents, the difference is even greater - 67.9% of those interviewed in Spanish are in favor versus 41.4% of those interviewed in English. In fact, the Hispanics interviewed in English are almost equally divided between favoring and opposing (41.4% favor, 41.7% oppose). This Spanish language issue may be worth more careful consideration in the future.

Recommendations

These findings suggest that it is critical to provide accurate, understandable information to the community so citizens can form views in a fact based arena. At present, most information is based on general but politically charged arguments. A clear and systematic presentation of positive and negative considerations could help reduce the level of uncertainty and perhaps forge a more unified orientation among all citizens throughout the community.

There are some important points emerging from this analysis. First, the results of this poll reflect the views of the population as a whole (except, of course, those without telephones) and display that a substantial plurality are in favor of consolidation. Secondly, and consistent with results from earlier polls, the population more likely to be politically involved are even more strongly in favor. It is well known that the consistently voting population is only a small portion of the registered population and they differ from the total population in important respects. In particular, they are more likely to be older, more highly educated and less likely to be African American or Hispanic.

The concept of unification (consolidation) of service delivery and local governmental units is attractive in ways readily understandable to many people, evoking images of reduced "red tape" (bureaucracy), elimination of duplication of services, improved efficiency in service delivery, and cost reductions. The favorable reaction shown in the poll is a response to these potential benefits. Opponents of consolidation, however, emphasize a history of abuses of political power and neglect of poor sectors of the city and county. This is sometimes couched in terms of potential dilution of minority voting power. Even the most recent public discussions have focused on alleged benefits or disadvantages, but neither side has provided clear evidence to support the respective positions. Both sides would do well to focus on empirically verifiable evidence that could be used to provide a clearer vision of the future for our community, and the advantages and disadvantages of consolidation.